Up & Down

Published on October 9, 2006 By PacDragon In Gaming

I've seen some pretty hefty swings in the last few weeks (by my standards, at least). But I suppose that's to be expected, now that I'm playing no-limit almost exclusively. I had worked my $650 at Ultimate Bet up to over $1k, making about $100 a day for a few days a week.

Then I lost nearly all that profit in less than 15 minutes! I had the second best set twice in a row... for example, the flop came K3J. I had 33, but my opponent had KK and stacked me when all the money went in. The very next hand was a flop of 84T. I had 88, my opponent had TT, and I got stacked again (right after I rebought!) I took a 10 minute break after that to catch my breath, then decided I wasn't actually on tilt and could still play reasonably well. I went to a different table and made about $20 before it broke up, forcing me to go back to the first table again.

I'm normally not superstitious, but that table just felt like bad luck. A few hands in, I flopped another set... TT on a flop of 4TJ. I made sure I wasn't going to let those rare beats make me play my set timid, so ended up getting all the money in again. This time losing to JJ, getting stacked for the third time that night! I had lost $280 in less than 15 minutes, which was a big chunk of my hard won profit. I decided I needed to quit for the night. Not because I was tilting, I wasn't really. I knew those were rare events and that I normally make most of my money from sets. But it's really tough for me to earn more than $280 in a night, and I don't like losing more than I can win in one session. So I quit.

The next few sessions were anti-climatic, winning between $20 & $100 a night, occasionally losing $20 to $50. I was nearly back, but still hurting a bit. The big recovery didn't happen until this weekend.

I was invited to a home game on Friday. There were only going to be about 7 people, but each player would be pretty tough. No fish, unfortunately. Luckily, the stakes were $1/$2, $100 buy-in, which is what I've been playing online, so I was pretty comfortable.

The game was supposed to start at 7pm, but I was the only one who showed up that early. I ended up hanging out with John, the guy who was hosting, until enough players showed up after 8pm. It kind of sucked starting so late, since I had to leave at midnight. But everything worked out. Some people canceled, so we were only 5 handed most of the night. A 6th guy showed up later, but I left not long after he got there.

I ended up making $428! I felt like I was really on. I got into some lucky situations, but I was also making some good reads. The first time I stacked one the guys, I was put to a very tough decision. I had TT before the flop and put in my standard raise. It was called by the big blind. The flop came down 974, all clubs. At least I think that was the flop & action, I could be a little off. I just remember that my tens were an overpair to an all-club flop (and that one of my tens was a club).

The big blind bet about half the pot and I called. I had a strong feeling that he was just trying to take the pot away, but I didn't want to re-open the betting if he had a small flush made. I was hoping to spike a fourth club cheaply. The turn brought a red queen. My opponent now pushed all-in, for about $94 more. It was a large overbet and created one of the biggest pots at this point in the game. I had to go into the tank for a while.

I put him on a few different possible hands. I thought a small flush was possible, but if that was the case, it seemed strange that he would bet so much. He wasn't leaving himself an escape route if I had been slow playing the nut flush. Same with a two pair. I completely discounted him holding the nut flush. If he had the nuts, why would he try to blow me out on the turn?

I had been playing fairly tight, so I couldn't imagine he'd actually expect me to suspiciously call an overbet with only a marginal hand. He seemed more likely to try to suck more money out. Plus, he looked like he fully expected me to just fold and hand the pot over. He had made a few all-in moves earlier, usually before the flop after limping. He seemed to be putting a lot of confidence in knowing when people couldn't call.

Where could that confidence come from, this time, post flop? I started to overwhelmingly believe that he held the ace of clubs, but no other club. He knew I "couldn't" call, because he had the card needed to make the nuts. It just smelled strongly like a semi-bluff. I also figured that if I was wrong, and he actually had two pair or a small flush, I could still win by catching a fourth club.

The only hand I was really worried about was AQ, with the ace of clubs, but decided it was a long shot and that I'd pay it off. I took a long time to think about it, but once I was confident in my read, I made the call. He definitely wasn't expecting it, and turned over a lone ace of clubs. I don't remember the kicker, but it thankfully wasn't a queen. No forth club came on the river and I took down a huge pot. He didn't seem too happy that I was willing to call down with second pair

I made a few other good reads that night, winning medium pots with marginal hands as I snapped off bluffs. When they stopped paying off my larger hands, I'd start attacking small pots. When they started to respond, I'd tighten back up. I managed to get away from some traps here and there, mostly hanging onto my growing stack. The real money was made when I flopped a set against pocket aces, twice, stacking my unlucky opponents (the money was in after I got the set, of course). The second time it happened was against the other large stack on the table, which earned me a ton of chips.

I felt like my opponents were making a lot of other mistakes that I was able to exploit, too. But I won't go into detail, since it's possible they'll read this. I'll just have to see if I can keep it up next time.

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