Tracking my progress in Texas Hold'em
Bankroll: $1444.73
Published on January 17, 2006 By PacDragon In Gaming
I pretty much had break-even play this weekend. I lost a little at $2/$4 Friday night. I actually had a nice profit, but then got AA beaten twice right before I quit, which took me down to a loss. I played live at Casino San Pablo on Sunday, lost a little at $3/$6, and then played the tournament there, but didn't place in the money (I'll talk more about that in a minute). On Monday, I lost three $5 tournaments. I was feeling pretty bummed... winning tournaments requires luck & skill. When you win, you know you've got a healthy helping of both. When you lose, you keep questioning yourself over which element is missing. Right before I gave up for the night, I tried one more tournament... a $20 sit & go. I finally won that one (crushed it actually), which covered all my losses from the rest of the weekend.

If you noticed that my bankroll grew, it's just because I started adding my small cash bankroll to my full bankroll. I need to start counting them all together since I plan to do more live cash games. But I really only broke even this weekend.

It's pretty funny that when I win, my ego grows and I have visions of going pro. But when I lose, I start wondering what the hell I'm doing. Heh, I heard Doyle Brunson say that sometimes he prefers losing, so he can get a good night's sleep. Going to bed with a depressing loss knocks you right out. But when you win, your adrenaline is up and it's nearly impossible to fall asleep.

So anyway, that tournament at Casino San Pablo... If there are any other poker players reading this, could you offer some advice about the play that knocked me out? I really can't figure out if I made the right move or not. The tourney started out with 50 people, which were replaced by alternates in the first few rounds as players got knocked out. I made it down to about 20-something players and was doing pretty good. I had a decent stack at that point and I'm pretty sure it was the largest stack at the table. But then a guy got moved over to our table who had slightly more than me.

He made a huge raise from under the gun and it was folded around to me. I looked down to see 99 and called for time. That bet was just too large, I didn't think the guy wanted to be called. What kind of hands would he be willing to risk so much, but not actually want a call? I thought maybe a lower pocket pair (which I dominate) or Ace-something (which I have a slight edge over). The bet was too large to just call... too many scare cards would force me to fold after the flop. I had to either fold, or push all-in. If I pushed, and he really didn't have anything, he'd have to fold and give me that huge pot. If he called, I more than likely still had the best hand as long as he didn't have a large pocket pair (I thought that chance was slim).

Then I had to decide if I was willing to risk my entire stack with just a slight edge. If he called my all-in and won, I'd be out of the tournament. If I folded, I still might be able to make it to the final table with some conservative play. But if he called my all-in and I won, I'd have a huge stack and would more than likely have plenty to battle at the final table.

I eventually pushed all-in, which was about 4 times his original raise. He thought about it for a while, while the dealer counted out my stack. He finally called and showed AJ. Not terrible. I wish he would have folded, but I still had about a 55% advantage. He ended up catching a J on the flop and that was that. I was busted out and had to leave.

Did I make the right move? What should I have done?

1.) Folded, because he had more money than me and I shouldn't risk my entire tournament on a small edge. Just wait for a better spot.
2.) Folded, because he could have had a much stronger hand than I put him on. Again, wait for a better spot.
3.) Just called, giving me a chance to fold when the J came on the flop.
4.) Raised all-in, taking a chance to give myself a commanding lead over the current table, with a nice stack to take to the final table.

Any advice is appreciated.

Comments
on Jan 17, 2006
It seems to me that if you were playing against the statistics, you made the right move. Sure, you got burned, but that's bound to happen from time to time, statistically. Also statistically, it's bound to happen in your favor more often than not. This was one of those "not" times, but it was still a good play in aggregate.

Me? I know next to nothing about the game, but I probably (meaning, assuming I could maintain my notoriously weak self control in this situation) would have held off, let him take down his pot, and waited until my skill edge could come more fully into play, rather than putting the tournament so fully on a luck edge. Sure, the luck would be on my side most of the time, but what if this is one of those times when it isn't?

On the third hand, playing the "what if" game is probably crippling. Or is it? Maybe you gotta ask yourself, "what if the luck is against me on this one? Can I take the hit and still make a comeback, or if this goes down bad am I out for good?"

When Dirty Harry asks the punk if he feels lucky, the correct move for the punk is to give up. Because, lucky or not, if he's unlucky, there's no way he can take a bullet to the head.

On the other hand, if the punk had been wearing body armor, and had been about a hundred feet away, then it might be worth making a play. If Dirty Harry is out of bullets, you win. And even if he's got a round or two left, you've still got a good chance of making it...
on Jan 17, 2006
I think you're right. I was definitely relying on luck to see me through in that play. I wasn't under much pressure from the blinds & antes yet, so could have easily folded. I shouldn't rely on the luck factor unless I'm really under a lot of pressure to make a move or go out. I did feel pressure to accumulate a larger stack, but I had enough chips to wait for a better spot. Hopefully, this will be a good lesson to keep me in check for a bigger tournament... next time I'll rely on post-flop skill instead of pre-flop luck when I've got a decent stack and against someone who has me covered.
on Feb 14, 2006
I think that we need more info.
If you had seen this guy before and he was tight, then a large raise under the gun from a big stack says one of two things; either he is trying to be a bully....
or, he has a pretty good hand. In the case you talk about I would not have put him on a A J.
You made the right play as far as I am concerned but I am mostly a home game player, (Successfull) and occasional on-line player. (Not as good, I get bored)
You got your money in with the (slightly) best hand so don't doubt your choice. It takes guts to go all in with a middle pair.